EB-1A Approval Rates Are Falling: How to Set Client Expectations at Intake

For years, EB-1A was the category many high-achieving prospects asked about first. The data now tells a more complicated story.

According to USCIS's quarterly I-140 data, as analysed by several immigration firms, EB-1A approval rates have fallen for six straight quarters, to around 32% in April–June 2026. Over the same period, EB-2 NIW approvals recovered to roughly 55% (Calam Immigration, Manifest Law). Firms tracking requests for evidence have also reported RFEs on roughly half of regularly processed EB-1A petitions.

Figures are from published analyses of USCIS data at the time of writing (November 2026). Always check the latest USCIS statistics before quoting numbers to clients.

For an immigration practice, this isn't just a legal problem. It changes the intake conversation.

How prospects are reacting

Your prospects read the same Reddit threads, LinkedIn posts and firm blogs you do. In our conversations with immigration firms and their prospective clients, three patterns stand out:

• More comparison shopping. Prospects are speaking to more firms before committing, and asking sharper questions about outcomes.
• More interest in "dual strategies". Many ask about filing NIW alongside, or instead of, EB-1A.
• More sensitivity to promises. A firm that sounds too confident now sounds less credible, not more.

Why honest intake now wins more good cases

It is tempting, when approval rates fall, to compensate with louder assurances. That's a mistake, commercially as well as ethically.

High-value immigration clients are deciding whether to trust you with a major life decision. The firms that convert best in a tougher environment tend to be the ones whose intake conversation:

• explains the current landscape plainly
• separates what the firm controls (the strength of the evidence and the petition) from what it doesn't (adjudication)
• shows a clear method for assessing this prospect's case
• offers a sensible strategy, which may be NIW, O-1, or waiting to build evidence, rather than a single category

We made the broader case in Why Trust Beats Guarantees. Current EB-1A data makes it more relevant than ever.

What to change in your intake process

1. Update your scripts and FAQs. Make sure intake staff and your website don't use language written for a 70%-approval world. Replace anything that implies certainty.

2. Qualify more carefully before the attorney call. Gather structured evidence early: publications and citations, awards, judging, press, original contributions, salary. Then the attorney consultation can focus on strategy rather than fact-finding.

3. Lead with the strategy question, not the category. "What's the best route for you?" converts better than "Let's see if you qualify for EB-1A", and it opens the door to NIW or O-1 where they fit better.

4. Keep the legal assessment with attorneys. Intake staff can explain the landscape and the process, but whether a specific person is likely to succeed is an attorney's judgement. See ABA Formal Opinion 506 for where those lines sit.

5. Put expectations in writing. A short post-consultation summary covering the recommended strategy, key strengths, key risks and next steps reduces later disputes and builds confidence.

6. Nurture the "not yet" prospects. Someone who isn't ready for EB-1A today may be a strong NIW case now, or a strong EB-1A case in a year. Keep in touch. Most firms don't, and lose those future clients to whoever does.

The commercial upside

Falling approval rates make prospects more careful, but they don't make them go away. The demand is still there among researchers, engineers, founders and executives. What changes is what wins it: credibility, clear strategy and a well-run process. Firms that adjust their intake accordingly are well placed to win a larger share of a more discerning market.

Frequently asked questions

Should we stop recommending EB-1A? No. Recommend it where the evidence supports it, and be clear about the current environment. For many prospects a parallel or alternative NIW strategy is worth discussing.

Can intake staff quote approval statistics to prospects? Sharing published, sourced statistics about the overall landscape is different from predicting an individual outcome. Keep staff to the former and leave case-specific assessment to attorneys.

How do we stop prospects going to the firm that promises the most? You won't win everyone, and you don't want the clients that a promise wins. Speed, clarity and a credible method win the clients worth having. Start with response time.